Geopolitical Risks Accelerate Dell’s “De-Sinicization” Process

ANBOUND
2 min readMar 21, 2023

In response to geopolitical uncertainty, the “de- sinicization” process of the supply chains of some of the top international consumer electronics makers is in full swing.

In January, news broke that U.S. computer maker Dell aims to stop using Chinese-made chips by 2024 and has told suppliers to significantly reduce the number of other “Made in China” components in its products.

According to the latest report by Taiwan’s Business Times, Dell expects to start “de-sinicization” its desktop computers, laptops and peripheral assembly from 2025. It is understood that Dell has recently met intensively with the middle and downstream supply chain, to notebooks, for example, Dell requires that starting in 2025, 60% of the products supplied by Dell for the U.S. market must be produced in plants outside mainland China, and in 2027 the proportion of U.S. market products assembled in locations outside mainland China will reach 100%, and the company has similar requirements for desktop computers.

Industry analysis, the U.S. market contributes more than 40% of Dell’s notebook shipments, as a projection, notebook computers in 2025 in plants outside mainland China assembly volume of 18 million -19.2 million units, 100% in 2027 when assembled outside mainland China, assembly volume of 30 million -32 million units, the supply chain outside mainland China to set up a stronghold to accelerate efforts Not to be underestimated.

In terms of chip procurement, the report points out that Dell will be carried out in two phases, the first phase from 2026 at the earliest to exclude mainland China IC manufacturers in mainland China fab casting products. The second phase is to exclude mainland China IC manufacturers in overseas fabs to cast production products, as for Europe, the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, IC manufacturers in mainland China fabs to cast production products, sooner or later will be “moral persuasion” to change the location of the casting.

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为应对地缘政治不确定性,一些国际一线消费电子大厂供应链的“去中国化”进程正如火如荼地进行着。

今年1月,有消息称美国计算机制造商戴尔的目标是到2024年停止使用中国制造的芯片,并已告知供应商大幅减少其产品中其他“中国制造”组件的数量。

据台媒工商时报最新报道,戴尔预计从2025年开始启动台式电脑、笔记本电脑与周边组装“去中国化”。据了解,戴尔近期密集与中、下游供应链会面,以笔记本为例,戴尔要求2025年开始,戴尔供应的美国市场产品中,60%必须由中国大陆以外厂区生产,2027年美国市场产品在中国大陆以外地点组装比例达100%,该公司对台式电脑也有类似的要求。

业界分析,美国市场对戴尔笔记本电脑出货量贡献度超过40%,以此推算,笔记本电脑2025年在中国大陆以外厂区组装量就有1800万-1920万台,2027年100%在中国大陆以外组装时,组装量达3000万-3200万台,对供应链在中国大陆以外地区设立据点加速力度不容小觑。

在芯片采购方面,报道指出,戴尔将分两阶段进行,第一阶段最快从2026年起优先排除中国大陆IC厂商在中国大陆晶圆厂投片产品。第二阶段则是排除中国大陆IC厂商在海外晶圆厂投片生产产品,至于欧、美、日、韩及中国台湾等地IC厂商在中国大陆晶圆厂投片生产的产品,迟早会被“道德劝说”改变投片地点。

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ANBOUND

ANBOUND is a multinational independent think tank, specializing in public policy research, incl. economy, urban and industry, geopolitical issues. Est. 1993.