How Did Germany Temporarily Get Rid of its Dependence on Russian Gas?
Germany is now largely free of its dependence on Russian gas exports, although this may only be temporary.
According to the latest German government statistics, after reducing Germany’s domestic gas usage and expanding supplies from Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium, plus rapidly opening new channels for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, Germany has largely achieved import substitution for Russian gas as of January 2023.
Previously, according to the German Ministry of Economy, Germany’s annual domestic gas consumption in 2021 before the Russia-Ukraine conflict was about 100 billion cubic meters, of which about 46 billion cubic meters was imported from Russia. This means that Germany’s dependence on Russian gas once reached 45–60%.
However, since September 2022, Norway has overtaken Russia and risen to become Germany’s largest gas supplier, exporting an average of 41 TWh of gas per month to Germany, a 60% increase compared to 26 TWh before the Russia-Ukraine conflict. During the same period, the Netherlands has also significantly expanded its gas supply to Germany from an average of 2 TWh per month to 25 TWh per month. Belgium’s gas supply to Germany increased from an average of 2 TWh per month to 23 TWh per month. The German government’s rapid investment in a floating LNG terminal, which will be operational by the end of 2022, will be equivalent to another 4 TWh of LNG imports.
In addition to increasing natural gas imports from countries such as Norway to “open source” gas, Germany has joined the rest of the EU in taking emergency measures to reduce its domestic gas demand. 2022, Germany’s domestic gas consumption fell by 15% year-over-year to 96 million metric tons of standard coal equivalent, the lowest since 2014.
As the supply and demand situation changes, there is uncertainty that Germany will completely break away from its dependence on Russian gas in the short term. The German Ministry of Economics expects that if the German LNG receiving terminal and other related facilities can be put into operation as scheduled, Germany is expected to achieve in 2026, completely by new imports of LNG to fill the gap after the cut-off of Russian gas supply.
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德国目前已基本摆脱了对俄罗斯出口天然气的依赖，尽管这可能只是暂时的。
据德政府最新统计，在降低德国国内的天然气用量，并扩大来自挪威、荷兰和比利时的供气量，加上迅速新辟液化天然气（LNG）进口渠道后，截至2023年1月，德国已基本实现对俄罗斯天然气的进口替代。
此前，据德国经济部数据，在俄乌冲突前的2021年，德国国内全年消耗天然气约为1000亿立方米，其中自俄进口天然气约为460亿立方米。这意味着，德国对俄气的依赖度一度达到45%-60%。
但在2022年9月以来，挪威已经超越俄罗斯，上升为德国最大的天然气供应国，每月平均对德出口41太瓦时天然气，相比俄乌冲突前的26太瓦时增长了六成。同期内，荷兰对德国的供气量也从月均出口2太瓦时，大幅扩大至25太瓦时。比利时的对德供气量则从月均2太瓦时增至23太瓦时。德国政府迅速投建的液化天然气浮动式接收站在2022年底投入使用后，又相当于进口了4太瓦时的LNG。
除了自挪威等国加大天然气进口以“开源”之外，德国与欧盟其他国家一同采取了压缩本国国内天然气需求的应急举措。2022年，德国国内的天然气消费，同比下降了15%至9600万吨标准煤当量，达2014年以来的最低。
随着供求形势变化，德国短期内完全摆脱俄气依赖具有不确定性。德国经济部预计，如果德国LNG接收站等相关设施能够如期投产，德国有望在2026年，实现完全由新进口LNG填补俄气断供后的缺口。
