Kung Chan, ANBOUND
Now, the Russians are still bombing Ukrainian cities, with huge intensity. The Ukrainians too, are attacking intensively. For the Ukrainians, the aim is to get more weapons, and that is exactly what has been done. On the Russian side, the objective is to maintain the image of Vladimir Putin as a strong man and to maintain his legitimacy. Therefore, when the Ukrainians exploded the Crimea Bridge, Russians retaliated by bombing Ukrainian cities. Yet, the reality is at the beginning of the war, Russia launched more than 3,000 missiles at Ukrainian cities, and now the number of these hundreds of bombs is far lower than before. Therefore, Ukraine is not afraid of it, and the bombing is not at all the focus of our view of this war.
As it stands, practically everyone believes that Russia has lost the war, including the Russians themselves. Why then, did Russia fail?
The reason lies in the two types of weapons used by Ukrainians in the war, i.e., HIMARS rocket launcher and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS), including anti-aircraft and anti-tank MANPADS.
No one would expect that the 12 to 16 sets of HIMARS rocket artillery that are now unwanted by the U.S. military have beaten the Russian army, one that is considered to be the second most powerful one in the world. They allowed Ukraine to quickly reverse the situation that was previously very passive due to the loss of Severodonetsk and Lysychans’k. As we speak, the Ukrainians have begun to turn defensive into offensive, and successively achieved a great victory in the Kharkiv counterattack, gaining major breakthroughs in the north of Kherson.
In fact, the HIMARS rocket launcher is a weapon system that the U.S. military is phasing out. Back in 2016, corporations like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon had already announced that they would provide a missile to meet the U.S. Army’s long-range precision firepower (LRPF) requirements, replacing the current HIMARS rocket launcher. Lockheed Martin and Raytheon also tested the renamed Precision Strike Missile (PRSM) program in 2019. Initially, the PRSM could only hit stationary targets on land, but later versions have become more advanced, capable of tracking and striking moving targets on land and sea.
When it comes to rocket artillery, many Russians, as well as Chinese, do not give much attention to it, often boosting on the range of the rocket artillery and the firepower. This is, however, the concept of “Katyusha” during the Second World War. Modern rocket artillery is a weapon system and a firing vehicle, not exactly “artillery” at all. It now emphasizes accuracy, hence when one wants to compare such systems, the focus should be on precision.
The accuracy of the rocket is mainly related to the number of satellites and their accuracy. If the satellite positioning accuracy is weak, then the system would be unusable. Likewise, if there are fewer satellites, once a satellite is shot down, it will paralyze a large area of weapon systems. The HIMARS rocket can be used as an army tactical precision strike weapon system because of its high strike accuracy. This means that the U.S. army can fight on the battlefield without the support of the Air Force, and if it is discovered, the army itself can ensure the self-destruction of the system, all that is needed is a coordinate.
The Russians are still promoting the concept of “artillery”, coupled with vigorous TV and movie propaganda, hence many still hold to these obsolete ideas, only to be shown the reality by the Ukrainian army. This has been quite obvious when Russia wants to buy drones from Iran, that these old-school artilleries are no match for the modern tactical precision strike weapon systems.
Another powerful weapon system of the Ukrainians is the MANPADS. MANPADS are not new, and many countries possess them. They can be seen in various defense and weapons exhibitions, whether it is a portable anti-aircraft missile “Stinger”, or a portable anti-tank missile “Javelin”, similar MANPADS have long been used. That said, how the Ukrainian force uses them is unprecedented. The issue, therefore, is not whether a military force owns MANPADS or not, but how to use them.
How did the Ukrainians use MANPADS? They are used like sniper rifles, and they can be destroyed when they are detected. Even if there are a large number of Soviet-era tanks inherited by the current Russia, they cannot prevent the elusive shooters of Ukraine that are well-hidden and are often outside the range of Russian tank guns. How the Ukrainians adopted the widespread use of MANPADS has also changed the nature of the war.
In future wars, there will be no more scenes of tanks shooting at each other, and that these tanks were driven through various landscapes. Tanks and armored vehicles are merely vehicles, and infantry performs only guard and reconnaissance tasks. The real decisive change is the kind of tactical squad displayed by the Ukrainian army, which uses the two systems mentioned above to fight the Russian officers who blindly believe in the old theories of war and the clueless generals.
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