Is China a Financial Safe Haven that Differs from the US and Europe?
Recently, several banks in the US and Europe have experienced risk events. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said at the 2023 Annual Meeting of the China Development Forum (CDF) on March 26 that the banking crises in some developed economies reflect the current unstable development of the global economy. Central banks are taking appropriate policies, and the IMF is closely monitoring the situation. She suggested that world economies need to remain vigilant.
In the face of risk events in US and European banks, Chinese officials hope to demonstrate that China’s financial system is in a secure state. On March 25, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director in charge of daily work at the Office of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, said at CDF that China is an international financial safe haven. Over the years, China has implemented a prudent monetary policy, insisted on the autonomy and normalization of monetary policy, and supported economic development while stabilizing the financial system, eliminating a large number of potential risks, and holding the bottom line of no systemic risks. Currently, there is no obvious inflationary or deflationary pressure, and monetary policy has significant room for maneuver.
Researchers at ANBOUND believe that although China has not experienced systemic financial risks or a large number of bank failures at present, the potential risks in China’s financial system are actually not small. For example, China’s debt problem — the size of government debt and corporate debt is large, and residents’ debt is also growing. In the real estate industry, high debts of several leading real estate companies pose risks. In the banking sector, several bank risk events have occurred in recent years, including Baoshang Bank, Evergrowing Bank, Jinzhou Bank, etc. Ultimately, all these banks were saved by the “efforts of the province” to prevent massive risk spread.
Therefore, in the face of financial risks, China is not really a safe haven, and it still needs to remain vigilant like the US and Europe regarding banking risk events.
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近期，美欧多家银行发生风险事件，国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃3月26日在参加中国发展高层论坛2023年年会时称，部分发达经济体出现的银行危机体现出当前世界经济发展不稳，各国央行正在采取相应政策，国际货币基金组织也在密切关注事态发展。她建议，世界各经济体接下来需要继续保持警惕。
面对美欧银行发生的风险事件，中国官员希望展示中国的金融体系处于安全状态。3月25日，中央财经委员会办公室分管日常工作的副主任韩文秀在中国发展高层论坛上表示，中国是国际金融安全的避风港，多年来中国实施稳健的货币政策，坚持货币政策的自主性和常态化，在支持经济发展过程中，稳住了金融体系，消除了大量风险隐患，守住了不发生系统性风险的底线。当前没有明显的通货膨胀或通货紧缩的压力，货币政策具有较大的回旋余地。
安邦智库（ANBOUND）的研究人员认为，虽然中国目前没有爆发系统性的金融风险和大量的银行倒闭事件，实际上中国金融体系的潜在风险不小，比如中国的债务问题 — — 政府债务、企业债务的规模都很大，居民债务也在不断增长；在房地产行业中，多家头部房企的高额债务正面临风险。在银行方面，前几年国内也出现过包商银行、恒丰银行、锦州银行等多家银行风险事件，最后都靠各地“举全省之力”挽救相关银行，避免了风险大规模扩散。
因此，面对金融风险，中国并不是真正的安全港湾，仍要警惕类似美欧的银行风险事件出现。
