Russia’s Prospects for the War in Ukraine

2 min readNov 29, 2022

Kung Chan, founder of ANBOUND

Forbes estimates that Russia has spent $82 billion on the war with Ukraine since February 24. According to Forbes, in the nine months of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia spent $82 billion on the war, a quarter of its annual budget.

This war is increasingly absurd and distorted for Russia. China and Russia have had the same reasons to counter a country’s attack, China is to retreat after the attack, and has expressed no intention of invading and destroying a country. Russia is different, they directly invade the capital of a country, directly want to destroy a country. It seems that this is an imposing, very powerful thing. The problem is that it failed, and it never realized it would fail.

So, there are two problems with Russia now, First, it is a failure; Second, it doesn’t know what to do after it fails?

So now Russia is spending a lot of war resources not on attacking the army, but on the common people, and the result is heartbreaking: due to the power outages of Ukrainians due to Russia’s infrastructure bombing campaign, the little girl in Kiev must be led by her parents to the gas station to charge her inhaler, otherwise she will die.

Will this make the war favorable to Russia? Just kidding! Of course not, can’t a country that can endure sacrifice be able to endure the lack of water and electricity?

So, the prospects become even more incredible. Russia desperately attacked the Ukrainian people, and Ukraine desperately doubled its attacks on the Russian army. The Russian army on the front line has no air support because they are all used to attack Ukrainian cities, and the result is that hundreds of Russian troops are killed every day, which is equivalent to eliminating a tactical battalion by the Ukrainian army every day. Russia clearly cannot afford such attrition.

In this way, if the war ideology is not clear, can Russia not lose? Of course, lose.

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ANBOUND is a multinational independent think tank, specializing in public policy research, incl. economy, urban and industry, geopolitical issues. Est. 1993.