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1. Western military assistance is limited and incapable of meeting Ukraine’s needs to defeat Russia, yet it appears sufficient to keep Ukraine from being defeated.
2. Ukraine’s resource disadvantages, including manpower and material makes it unable to achieve a complete victory over Russia. However, these resources are adequate to prevent Russia from gaining victory if Ukraine remains nationally unified.
3. The time factor is crucial for Russia, Europe, the U.S., and Ukraine. As the conflict extends, Europe and the U.S. cannot ignore the continuation of it after the war in Israel is over. This puts pressure on both Russia and Ukraine.
4. Excessive sacrifices in Ukraine hinder the possibility of peaceful negotiations. Unaddressed hatred and losses require rebuilding, and without defeating Russia, Ukraine cannot access sufficient resources for this purpose.
5. Victory over Ukraine for Russian President Vladimir Putin is a triumph that can be easily rationalized, leading to increased confidence and greater demands on Europe. The Western world, however, cannot accept such a Russian victory.
6. The U.S. military cannot accept a Russian victory in Ukraine. This implies that the U.S. military must reconstruct all strategic tactics under the condition of failure, given the repercussions of the chaotic aftermath of Afghanistan.
7. A catastrophic defeat in Ukraine (i.e., an uncontrollable rapid failure) may lead to unpredictable and severe occurrences, such as a nuclear disaster engulfing Europe.
8. If Ukraine fails and collapses, the Nordic countries will inevitably be reckoned with by Russia. This could mean a significant increase in the risk of NATO getting involved in the war. All in all, such a war might very well become a reality.
9. Russia’s victory over Ukraine signifies a regression for world civilization. This signifies that irrational means, including threats of war, will be employed to obtain what a country wants. The minimal order structure surviving after World War II will be completely lost.
From this analysis, a coherent deduction arises: Ukraine should engage in a protracted conflict strategy, prolonging the duration of the war to exhaust Russia’s military resources. It needs to understand and foresee Russia’s psychological dynamics in warfare, that while Ukraine is unable to defeat Russia, neither could Russia win the war, and Ukraine could even gain an upper hand through exhausting the Russian resources, forcing it to end the war without condition. The ultimate milestone represents the juncture at which Ukraine’s strategic triumph is substantiated.
To achieve this, Ukraine must recognize what the conditions for victory are. Its greatest resource in defeating Russia is national unity. As long as this unity is unbroken, victory will belong to Ukraine. The more united Ukraine is, the more Western assistance it receives, and the more Russia finds it impossible to defeat it. Unity is Ukraine’s most effective weapon in defeating Russia, both now and in the future.
