The Confrontational Atmosphere Between the U.S. and China Has Exacerbated the “Political and Economic Dilemma” of Both Countries
In international relations, it is important and difficult to build political trust, but it is very easy to destroy it.
In November 2022, the leaders of China and the United States met at the G20 summit in Indonesia, demonstrating the good atmosphere for a “Biden-Xi meeting” at the beginning of this spring. But the recent “stray balloon” incident has disrupted efforts to restore relations between the two countries.
In addition, the “anti-China” atmosphere of the U.S. political parties and the public is also not conducive to the negotiation of the “Xi-Baiden” meeting. Some analysts believe that Biden is very clear about the importance of the U.S.-China dialogue, but the diplomatic and domestic issues he faces today are very complex and will inevitably involve the intensity of his “resistance” to China.
From the current situation, Biden must solve many problems within six months, including how to effectively curb inflation, so that the federal government through the debt ceiling brought about by the shutdown crisis, etc. In the face of many pressures, a formal meeting between the leaders of China and the United States could have a positive impact on the economy.
After Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to China was disrupted by the “stray balloon” incident, his “pre-conference” with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi was necessary to help him continue to make arrangements for his visit to China. However, the balloon incident allowed the Republican Party to pick up the gun, and the Biden administration has put itself in a difficult position by being forced to “get tough” with China.
In terms of elections, the U.S. presidential election next November will be very important for both the Democrats and Republicans, and both sides must do their best to win. In the current political situation in the U.S., being tough on China may become a standard action that both parties must take in next year’s election.
The intensified confrontational atmosphere between China and the U.S. also brings great external political and economic pressures on China, including international geopolitical pressures, U.S.-driven technology and economic decoupling from China, Western diplomatic detachment from China, increased pressure on China’s supply chain security and energy security, etc., which also increase the challenges for China’s future development.
For the two most globally influential powers, a deepening and prolonged confrontation between China and the United States would put both sides in a difficult position and increase the potential for deeper risks.
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在国际关系中，建立政治信任很重要，也很困难，不过，要摧毁它则非常容易。
2022年11月，中美两国领导人在印尼G20峰会见面，展示了今年开春“拜习会”的良好氛围。但最近“流浪气球”事件打乱了两国恢复关系的努力。
此外，美国朝野政党和民众的“抗中”气氛也不利于“拜习会”的协商。有分析认为，拜登对于美中对话的重要性非常清楚，但如今他面临的外交和内政问题非常复杂，势必会牵扯到他“抗中”的强度。
从当前情况看，拜登必须在半年内解决许多问题，包括如何有效抑制通胀、让联邦政府渡过因债务上限带来的关门危机等。面对诸多压力，中美两国领导人如能进行正式会谈，在经济上可能会有正面影响。
美国国务卿布林肯的访华安排被“流浪气球”事件干扰后，其与中国最高外交官王毅的“会前会”很有必要，有助于他继续达成访华安排。不过，气球事件让美国共和党捡到了枪，拜登政府被逼着对中国“硬”起来，也让自己陷入困境。
在选举方面，明年11月的美国总统大选对于民主党和共和党来说都非常重要，双方都必须全力争胜。在目前美国的政治形势下，对中国强硬可能成为明年大选时美国两党都必须采取的标准动作。
中美两国的对抗氛围加剧，对中国也带来了很大的对外政经压力，包括国际地缘政治压力、美国驱动的对华科技与经济脱钩、西方与中国的外交疏离、中国面临的供应链安全与能源安全压力增大等等，也增大了中国未来发展的挑战。
对于中美两个最具全球影响力的大国来说，对抗如果不断加深并长期化，将会使双方都陷入困境，并且增大爆发更深层次风险的可能。
